Four out of five openly gay candidates
running for the House of Representatives are predicted to win on
According to the New York Time's
FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast, House members Barney Frank of
Massachusetts, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Jared Polis of Colorado
will each hold onto their seat. The three incumbents are expected to
be joined by Providence Mayor David Cicilline, who is running to
represent Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District.
But it appears unlikely that Stephen
P. Pougnet will unseat Republican Mary Bono Mack to become the first
openly gay family man in Congress. Mack is being given a 97.7
percent chance of being reelected to represent the people of
California's 45th Congressional District.
Baldwin, a Democrat, is the surest bet,
with a 100 percent chance of reelection, according to the website.
In July, the
Young Republicans of Dane County claimed Baldwin should be eliminated
from the race because her paperwork, which lists her campaign office
as her address instead of her voting address, is invalid.
Baldwin, however, overcame the objection, arguing that she has faced
threats of violence in the past.
The race in Massachusetts, where Frank
faces Republican Sean Bielat, is less certain. Frank's chances of
reelection are set at 96.7 percent, but the 70-year-old lawmaker's
vote share is expected to drop nearly 10 points from his last bid.
Bielat has benefited from the current
anti-incumbent mood sweeping much of the country. He disagrees with
gay marriage – Massachusetts was the first state to legalize the
institution more than 5 years ago – and has defended “Don't Ask,
Don't Tell,” the law that bans gay and bisexual troops from serving
“Men under the height of 5 feet, 2
inches can't serve – I don't see anybody protesting. Where are the
people standing in front of the White House, the short guy standing
in front of the White House? You don't see it,” the
thirty-five-year-old Republican candidate said.
Frank has also been the target of gay
GOP group GOProud. In its $50,000 television ad buy, Frank
is likened to the gossipy stars of Bravo's Real Housewives
reality franchise and labeled “catty.”
Polis' opponent, Republican Stephen
Bailey, is forecasted to receive only 36 percent of the vote in his
bid to unseat the Colorado representative. Polis has a 99.7 percent
chance of returning to Washington for a second term.
Cicilline's race is the least certain.
49-year-old Cicilline, who has served two terms as mayor of
Providence, is being given an 88.2 percent chance of beating his
rival, Republican John Loughlin.