The Human Rights Campaign (HRC) and
Bowling Green State University project in a new report that one-fifth
of voters will be LGBTQ by 2040.
The report – titled Equality
Electorate: The Projected Growth of the LGBTQ+ Voting Bloc in Coming
Years – used publicly available data to conclude that LGBTQ
voters will emerge “as among one of the most influential voting
constituencies in the country whose impact will permanently transform
and reshape the American electoral landscape.”
According
to its authors, LGBTQ voters will surge to 14.3% by 2030 and
17.8% in the following decade. Currently, the electorate accounts for
11.3% of voters in the United States.
The report also found that LGBTQ voters
played a pivotal role in President Joe Biden's victory.
“Had LGBTQ+ voters stayed home, it is
likely Donald Trump would have won re-election,” HRC said in a
summary.
“The LGBTQ+ voting bloc has been
steadily growing and is on track to exponentially expand in the
coming years, becoming one of the fastest growing voting
constituencies in the country, wielding increasing influence in
local, state, and federal elections,” said HRC interim president
Joni Madison. “LGBTQ+ voters are already playing a pivotal role in
elections, and in the coming years will fundamentally reshape the
American electoral landscape – especially in battleground states
and swing districts that are consequential to determining control of
the Presidency and Congress.”
The projected increases reach as high
as 86% in Ohio by 2040. Other battleground states with similar
projections include Georgia, Texas, and Arizona.
In other states such as Nevada and
Colorado, the share of self-identifying LGBTQ voters could exceed
one-in-five by 2040.
“Increased acceptance of LGBTQ+
people and pro-equality policies among Millennials and Generation Z
have important implications for future elections,” HRC said. “As
the U.S. population continues to age, both generations will
increasingly account for larger shares of the population – and,
subsequently, a larger share of the voting eligible population. Given
that LGBTQ+ people are growing as a share of the U.S. population,
largely driven by higher LGBTQ+ identification among younger
generations, it is safe to assume that LGBTQ+ Americans and their
pro-equality allies are, and will increasingly continue to be, an
important voting bloc in American elections.”