The effort to repeal gay marriage in Maine is pulling ahead, a new poll finds, but continues to trail overall, an analysis reveals.

The Public Policy Polling survey shows Question 1, the November 3 ballot question that would repeal gay marriage in the Pine State, in a dead heat. The survey of 1,130 likely voters found that the measure is now evenly divided with 48% on each side.

Respondents were asked, “Do you intend to vote yes or no on Question 1, which would undo the law that lets same-sex couples marry?”

Last week's Pan Atlantic SMS Group's Omnibus Poll of 401 likely voters clearly showed the ballot measure trailing 52- to 43%.

Despite the late rally, an analysis of polling data by statistician Nate Silver at concludes the measure will likely fail.

Calling the four most recent polls “somewhat contradictory,” Silver believes the issue hinges on who turns out to vote on Election Day.

“What I think is reasonably clear is that if you had a 2008-type turnout, the marriage ban would fail,” Silver says. “But there's not going to be a 2008-type turnout.”

The measure's success – or failure – will likely depend on the age demographic, Silver says. Younger voters under the age of 45 tend to support gay marriage.

“A couple of weeks ago, I gave the marriage ban 3:1 odds against passing,” Silver says. “I might lower that slightly to about 5:2 given the PPP poll, but the fundamentals remain fairly good for proponents of marriage equity.”