Barney Frank, David Cicilline, Jared Polis, Tammy Baldwin Predicted Winners

Four out of five openly gay candidates running for the House of Representatives are predicted to win on Tuesday.

According to the New York Time's FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast, House members Barney Frank of Massachusetts, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Jared Polis of Colorado will each hold onto their seat. The three incumbents are expected to be joined by Providence Mayor David Cicilline, who is running to represent Rhode Island's 1^st Congressional District.

But it appears unlikely that Stephen P. Pougnet will unseat Republican Mary Bono Mack to become the first openly gay family man in Congress. Mack is being given a 97.7 percent chance of being reelected to represent the people of California's 45^th Congressional District.

Baldwin, a Democrat, is the surest bet, with a 100 percent chance of reelection, according to the website. In July, the Young Republicans of Dane County claimed Baldwin should be eliminated from the race because her paperwork, which lists her campaign office as her address instead of her voting address, is invalid. Baldwin, however, overcame the objection, arguing that she has faced threats of violence in the past.

The race in Massachusetts, where Frank faces Republican Sean Bielat, is less certain. Frank's chances of reelection are set at 96.7 percent, but the 70-year-old lawmaker's vote share is expected to drop nearly 10 points from his last bid.

Bielat has benefited from the current anti-incumbent mood sweeping much of the country. He disagrees with gay marriage – Massachusetts was the first state to legalize the institution more than 5 years ago – and has defended “Don't Ask, Don't Tell,” the law that bans gay and bisexual troops from serving openly.

“Men under the height of 5 feet, 2 inches can't serve – I don't see anybody protesting. Where are the people standing in front of the White House, the short guy standing in front of the White House? You don't see it,” the thirty-five-year-old Republican candidate said.

Frank has also been the target of gay GOP group GOProud. In its $50,000 television ad buy, Frank is likened to the gossipy stars of Bravo's Real Housewives reality franchise and labeled “catty.”

Polis' opponent, Republican Stephen Bailey, is forecasted to receive only 36 percent of the vote in his bid to unseat the Colorado representative. Polis has a 99.7 percent chance of returning to Washington for a second term.

Cicilline's race is the least certain. The 49-year-old Cicilline, who has served two terms as mayor of Providence, is being given an 88.2 percent chance of beating his rival, Republican John Loughlin.