North Carolina voters will approve Amendment One, according to new analysis published in The New York Times on Friday.

If approved on Tuesday, Amendment One would bar the state from recognizing the relationships of gay and lesbian couples with marriage, civil unions and possibly domestic partnerships.

“Both recent polls of the state and an analysis of past ballot initiatives in other states suggest that the measure, Amendment 1, is likely to pass, although there is ambiguity over the outcome of voter confusion about what the amendment seeks to achieve,” statistician Nate Silver wrote, referring to voter confusion on whether the amendment would also ban civil unions for gay couples, instead of just marriage.

A model first published last year which projects support for such bans based on a state's religious participation and whether the initiative would ban civil unions in addition to gay marriage suggests the amendment is likely to pass by 7 to 19 percentage points.

Silver offers two version of the model based on the rate of acceptance for gay unions.

Amendment One passes by 19 points when a linear rate of approval is applied and by 7 points when an accelerated rate is applied.