The effort to repeal gay marriage in
Maine is pulling ahead, a new poll finds, but continues to trail overall, an
analysis reveals.
The Public
Policy Polling survey shows Question 1, the November 3 ballot
question that would repeal gay marriage in the Pine State, in a dead
heat. The survey of 1,130 likely voters found that the measure is
now evenly divided with 48% on each side.
Respondents were asked, “Do you
intend to vote yes or no on Question 1, which would undo the law that
lets same-sex couples marry?”
Last week's Pan Atlantic SMS Group's
Omnibus Poll of 401 likely voters clearly showed the ballot measure
trailing 52- to 43%.
Despite the late rally, an analysis of
polling data by statistician Nate
Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com concludes the measure will likely
fail.
Calling the four most recent polls
“somewhat contradictory,” Silver believes the issue hinges on who
turns out to vote on Election Day.
“What I think is reasonably clear is
that if you had a 2008-type turnout, the marriage ban would fail,”
Silver says. “But there's not going to be a 2008-type turnout.”
The measure's success – or failure –
will likely depend on the age demographic, Silver says. Younger
voters under the age of 45 tend to support gay marriage.
“A couple of weeks ago, I gave the
marriage ban 3:1 odds against passing,” Silver says. “I might
lower that slightly to about 5:2 given the PPP poll, but the
fundamentals remain fairly good for proponents of marriage equity.”